“The bad news is time flies. The good news is you’re the pilot.”

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Everyone’s talking about tariffs—what they mean for imports, exports and interest rates etc. Most importantly for the global watch community, how will tariffs affect luxury watch prices? It’s a fluid situation at best, and to be honest, nobody knows until President Trump decides how far he’s willing to take this experiment. But let’s take a step back and look beyond the headlines….

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If you’re inclined to justify your luxury purchases (be it to yourself or to your significant other), current global events may actually help you make a strong case. The United States is somewhat shaky right now, and China has been rolling out stimulus package after stimulus package. We live in interesting times, but in turmoil there does lie opportunity, and perhaps there’s no better time to acquire your dream timepiece. Contrarian? Maybe—but let’s assess this perspective.

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2021-2025: Feast to famine

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As the luxury watch market enjoyed unprecedented sales during the years of Covid-fuelled hyperconsumerism and the crypto-boom, watch maisons did all they could to sustain this prosperity, including tightening production volume and bidding on their own pieces at auctions, in order to boost perceived secondary value. Some watch brands furloughed staff, and Senior Executives representing some brands even called for fellow luxury watchmakers (ie. competitors) to reduce production because global demand for watches “has gone past the boom.” The last thing a bear market needs is a saturation of goods. In 2024, Swiss watchmakers even called on Switzerland’s central bank to curb the strength of the Swiss Franc, in hopes that a less volatile local currency might benefit the industry’s dismal international sales.

The industry was keen to stave off an impending winter, which to their misfortune - but to a buyers’ fortune - did arrive.

Bloomberg’s Subdial Watch Index, which tracks the transaction values of the 50 most traded timepieces, noted a decrease of almost 6 per cent in 2024. Even if you call this three-year low a “price correction”, there’s no denying that numerous sought-after icons, from two-tone Submariners and Datejusts to the classic Ref. 5402 (especially the C and D type dial configurations) and the Ref. 5711, are now available at more attractive prices.

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While the spiking rates of violent crime in some European cities caused luxury watch sales in the region to dip in recent years, watch experts and analysts covering the luxury industry believed that supply chain and raw material availability issues caused by war in Europe may be the straw to break the back of the luxury market.

Rather, it has been the volatility and pressure of the Chinese economy that has dealt a far more grievous blow to the luxury goods sector. This has made the predicted ‘winter’ of 2024 extra frigid resulting in watch trading values falling by around 37 per cent since March 2022.

Ignited by the collapse of Evergrande, the unnerving Chinese downturn finally convinced the authorities to roll out stimulus packages, after proudly resisting stimulus for years.

China is, by far, the largest consumer of luxury watches, and the ripple effect of China’s slumps have always led to stagnation and the tightening of purse strings around the world. But ask yourself this —do you really believe China’s economy won’t bounce back? In our humble opinion, China’s market and appetite for luxury assets may be subdued right now, but as a country whose growth rate in a downturned economy makes most other countries envious, China’s demand will continue on an upward trajectory that will in turn be reflective in the luxury watch market and revert to our simple equation of ID (Increasing Demand) + LS (Low Supply) = IP (Increased Prices).

So, should buyers stay away from the watch market? On the contrary. This may be a fitting opportunity to pull the trigger on the timepiece you’ve been looking at for the past few years, the time when savvy collectors and investors add to their collection or put their money to work.

“The safe time to invest is when there is blood in the streets,” finance mogul Mark Mobius famously quipped, and the streets of haute horlogerie now run crimson indeed.

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Paint the Town Red

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If you’ve been keeping an eye on the market, you might have already noticed the listing prices of some grail watches shrink. ‘Hype watches’, in particular, are swelling in availability, and trading far lower than their crypto and Covid era peaks.

We live in strange times where accessibility is the enemy of hype, but the questions are simple—do you love the timepiece you’re buying? If yes, the economic watch climate is now in your favour. If you’re buying a particular piece because you believe there’s value to be gained over the long-term as a collectible, the question then becomes: is this a buying opportunity? We don’t know anyone or any AI model that can yet time the bottom of any market. The mantra of any sound collector or watch investor is to buy low/sell high. All too often individuals buy high/sell lower which is the antithesis of what we believe any watch collector should do. Note the use of our terms “collector” and “watch investor”. For so-called “flippers” – well, we believe if you have nothing nice to say, say nothing at all so we’ll stay silent on that segment of the market.

Regardless of Trump, tariffs, watch spikes and dips, there is one unassailable point we believe—timepieces are a form of art. An education on your wrist. There is value in the joy, pride and emotion of owning a piece you’ve admired or sought-after in a world where sometimes the time of day is the only thing that makes sense.

Andre Frois is the former Editor-in-Chief of Revolution Asia and is currently a contributor to Haute Time, Tatler GMT and The Peak.

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